The first comes from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Referred to as the “Chris Murray Model” by Deborah Birx, the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, it uses a statistical model to predict the shape of the curve that we’ve heard so much about and compares it to the hospital resources that are available in states and countries around the world. In Maine, peak resource use is predicted to come April 18 or 19, about a week after the United States as a whole reaches its peak. Wyoming won’t reach its peak resource use until the end of the month. Spain reached its peak March 31, and they fell far short of the number of ICU beds that were needed. The demand for ICU isn’t projected to fall below what’s available until April 21.
The other comes from informationisbeautiful.net, a company that specializes in graphic representations of data.